And that's on hard courts, where Djokovic is at his best and in his last 50 matches at main level on outdoor hard he's held 87% of the time and won 74% of his first serve points, so RBA has done well against the Serb lately.
Friday will be the 40 meeting between Federer and Nadal and the pair, who share a combined 38 Grand Slam titles between them, know each other game's inside out. It will be their first meeting at the All England Lawn Tennis Club since the epic 2008 finals.
Strangely, they've only met on three occasions on grass throughout their career - a nod to Nadal's struggles on grass this decade, perhaps - with Federer taking two of those clashes.
"The men's competition has been a slow burner, to put it politely, but Nadal's semi-final against Federer will ensure it catches fire on Friday".
In Wednesday's quarterfinals, Calvert told readers to bet Federer at +230 (risk $100 to win $230) to defeat Kei Nishikori three sets to one - and that's exactly what happened.More news: Japan's space probe first to capture material beneath asteroid surface
Tignor expects Federer to up his game against Nadal, who has looked imperious so far in this tournament.
His loss in Paris, which took place in what he described as "insane" windy conditions, was his heaviest at the Slams in 11 years.
"Rafa really can hurt anybody on any surface", said Federer.
"He's serving way different".More news: Democrats issue new subpoenas amid investigation into whether Donald Trump obstructed justice
The pair are set to get underway on Centre Court at 3:00pm United Kingdom time, with live coverage on the BBC in the United Kingdom and ESPN in the USA, though the start time may be pushed back depending on events in the first semi-final between Novak Djokovic and Roberto Bautista Agut.
The top seed and world number one reached the semi-finals for the ninth time, racking up his 70th career win at the All England Club by sweeping past David Goffin in straight sets, reeling off 15 of the last 17 games. It's their 14th match at a major; Nadal leads 10-3.
For this, Djokovic is a heavy favourite at [1.09] to progress, and while I do think this is a bit short, it's tough to think that there's much in the way of actionable value, despite the fact that Djokovic's edge, based on service/return points won isn't as considerable as those market prices would imply.
"He's got fantastic consistency", said Djokovic. I think he's got more depth on his backhand. Federer has rolled through Wimbledon 2019, winning all five of his matches in four sets or fewer.
For the second straight year, all four of the men's semi-finalists are aged 30 or over.More news: U.S. producer prices up slightly, point to moderate inflation