The United States will be the biggest contributor to global oil production growth in the period to 2040, accounting for 75 percent of the total, the International Energy Agency said in its latest World Energy Outlook, adding, however, that this would require a lot more investments than what is now being made in production expansion.
The IEA report describes a possible "sustainable" scenario in which renewable energy, carbon emission reduction strategies and efficiency gains keep overall demand at current levels to 2040. "It's great that the IEA now sees wind being the no. 1 source of electricity in Europe in less than ten years".
There must be an "unprecedented global political and economic effort" to shift energy towards more sustainable means if climate targets are to be reached, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned.
Demand will be driven by developing economies led by China and India, although this may be offset by more advanced economies reducing consumption up to 2040 due to the increasing use of renewables and implementation of other efficiencies, as well as more electric cars on the road.
Meanwhile, peak oil demand would be reached by 2030, spending on electricity would overtake that of oil products before 2035 and premature deaths owing to air pollutants would fall by almost 2 million.More news: Stokes Fails at Three as England Slip to 120-4 at Lunch
The Paris-based agency estimates about 16 billion barrels of new conventional oil resources needs to be discovered and discovered for development each year between now and 2025 to avoid a "mismatch" between supply and demand.
Coal's role as a power source will fall with the 2018 World Outlook forecasting coal demand to fall by around 3% compared to its last outlook and go on falling into the 2030's and beyond as renewables replace it as a primary energy source.
In the report's main scenario, dubbed the New Policies Scenario, renewables and coal switch places in the power mix, with the share of generation from renewables rising from 25% to around 40% in 2040.
The agency's demand forecast to 2040 is based on the assumptions of rising incomes, an extra 1.7 billion people in the world - a lot of them in urban areas in developing economies - and a "new policies scenario" in which current efficiency and carbon reduction targets are enacted.
The World Bank Group said at the One Planet Summit in Paris in December that it would cease to finance upstream oil and gas projects after 2019 "to align its support to countries to meet their Paris goals".More news: Monkey kills baby boy after snatching infant from mother
Wind power is set overtake coal, nuclear and gas to become the EU's largest power source well before 2030.
OPEC and rival producers such as Russian Federation, have floated the possibility of cutting oil production next year to prevent an unwelcome build-up in global inventories, even as Iran now faces U.S. sanctions on its exports.
The United States could account for 40 percent of total gas production growth to 2025, the IEA said, while other sources would take over as USA shale gas output flattened and other nations started turning to unconventional methods of gas production, such as hydraulic fracturing or fracking.
Carbon emissions have grown in the past two decades and coal-fired plants were the biggest contributors, according to the IEA.
From 2017 levels, the IEA said Carbon dioxide emissions would rise by 10% to 36 gigatonnes in 2040, mostly driven by growth in oil and gas.More news: India beat Pakistan to maintain 100% record
The agency said this growth trajectory was "far out of step" with what scientific knowledge says would be required to tackle climate change.