The IMD forecast comes days after a similar prediction by the private weather forecast agency Skymet Weather, which on April 4 said the Monsoon 2018 was likely to remain normal at 100 per cent (with an error margin of +/-5 per cent) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September. A figure between 96 to 104 percent is considered normal monsoon.
Monsoon rains, the lifeline of the country's United States dollars 2 trillion economy, are expected to be 97 per cent of a long-term average, KJ Ramesh, director general of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), said. The upcoming Kharif season is entirely based on Monsoon rains.More news: Two Pak soldiers martyred in Afghan border clash
Meanwhile, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a thunderstorm warning for Monday.
As regards Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon, which is the other important factor, he said, at present neutral IOD conditions are prevailing and recent forecasts indicate that a weak negative IOD conditions may develop during the middle of the monsoon season and this has been factored into the overall forecast. The IMD predicted 97 per cent chance of near-normal showers. The dynamic model has forecast a rainfall of 99 per cent plus or minus a model error of five per cent, while the statistical model forecast is 97 per cent plus or minus model error of five per cent.More news: Flood warning for Ulster; flash flood watches for Sullivan and Orange
However, the monsoon can be affected by the El Niño conditions. India receives 70% of its annual rainfall in the four-month period, which in turn irrigates over half of its farm lands lacking assured irrigation.
If the forecast holds true, 2018 will be third successive year of normal rains. India had faced deficient rains during monsoon season in 2015 and 2014, making both these years drought years.More news: Malaysia's IHH plans rival bid for India's Fortis Healthcare